Nico CollinsorTrey McBride?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver or tight end.
Our call
Lean Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Trey McBride in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Trey McBride comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Nico Collins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Nico Collins projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Trey McBride has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (41% more than average to TEs); Nico Collins faces the Tennessee Titans (13% more than average to WRs). Nico Collins still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Trey McBride is the pick at 51%; in Standard leagues, Nico Collins wins 63%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.5
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 27.6
- Big game (20+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 26.8
- Big game (15+):
- 47%
- Dud (under 5):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.6 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 19.5 | 20.3 |
| Standard projection | 13.8 | 11.4 |
| Rank this week | WR5 | TE1 |
| Matchup | at TEN | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.5 | 13.2 |
| Last season per game | 12.7 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 69% | 97% |
| Trade value | 55 | 44 |