Aaron JonesorD'Andre Swift?
Week 7 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start D'Andre Swift
D'Andre Swift outscores Aaron Jones in 57% of simulations.
Aaron Jones still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so D'Andre Swift is the better bet, not a sure thing. D'Andre Swift projects 2.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (average to RBs); D'Andre Swift faces the New England Patriots (12% fewer than average to RBs). D'Andre Swift still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 10.6
- Ceiling
- 18.0
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
- Floor
- 5.3
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 23.1
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 14%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI, Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.2 | 13.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.5 | 14.7 |
| Standard projection | 9.9 | 12.2 |
| Rank this week | RB14 | RB10 |
| Matchup | vs IND | vs NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.8 | 15.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 13.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 87% | 58% |
| Trade value | 19 | 36 |