Ashton JeantyorDenzel Boston?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Denzel Boston
Denzel Boston outscores Ashton Jeanty in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ashton Jeanty comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Denzel Boston, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Denzel Boston has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (7% more than average to WRs); Ashton Jeanty faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 11.4
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 11.6
- Ceiling
- 22.5
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Denzel BostonWR, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 14.7 | 14.4 |
| Standard projection | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| Rank this week | RB11 | WR11 |
| Matchup | vs KC | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 12.7 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 89% |
| Trade value | 31 | 24 |