Ashton JeantyorTreVeyon Henderson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores TreVeyon Henderson in 59% of simulations.
TreVeyon Henderson still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Ashton Jeanty is the better bet, not a sure thing. Ashton Jeanty projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. TreVeyon Henderson has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (17% more than average to RBs); Ashton Jeanty faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs). Ashton Jeanty still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.1
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 24.1
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 9.0
- Ceiling
- 22.3
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | TreVeyon HendersonRB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 11.3 |
| PPR projection | 14.4 | 12.2 |
| Standard projection | 11.1 | 10.4 |
| Rank this week | RB14 | RB18 |
| Matchup | vs KC | at BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 8.5 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 11.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 37% |
| Trade value | 30 | 6 |