Breece HallorTreVeyon Henderson?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Breece Hall

Breece Hall outscores TreVeyon Henderson in 57% of simulations.

TreVeyon Henderson still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Breece Hall is the better bet, not a sure thing. Breece Hall projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. TreVeyon Henderson has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (17% more than average to RBs); Breece Hall faces the Chicago Bears (3% fewer than average to RBs). Breece Hall still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Breece Hall
Floor
4.2
Median
10.2
Ceiling
20.6
Big game (20+):
11%
Dud (under 6):
21%
TreVeyon Henderson
Floor
2.5
Median
8.7
Ceiling
21.4
Big game (20+):
12%
Dud (under 6):
34%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBreece HallRB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTreVeyon HendersonRB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection11.610.9
PPR projection13.011.8
Standard projection10.310.1
Rank this weekRB16RB20
Matchupat CHIat BUF
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game12.58.5
Last season per game11.911.1
Snap share, last game48%37%
Trade value186