Breece HallorDerrick Henry?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Breece Hall in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Breece Hall comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Derrick Henry, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Derrick Henry projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Breece Hall has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (15% more than average to RBs); Derrick Henry faces the Los Angeles Chargers (5% fewer than average to RBs). Derrick Henry still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Breece Hall is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 22.5
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Breece HallRB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 13.3 |
| PPR projection | 14.2 | 13.8 |
| Standard projection | 11.2 | 12.8 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | RB11 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 15.1 |
| Last season per game | 11.9 | 16.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 43% | 50% |
| Trade value | 17 | 32 |