Brenton StrangeorDallas Goedert?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert outscores Brenton Strange in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Brenton Strange comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Dallas Goedert, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dallas Goedert projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Brenton Strange has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (53% more than average to TEs); Dallas Goedert faces the Los Angeles Rams (14% fewer than average to TEs). Dallas Goedert still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 14.4
- Big game (15+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 7.9
- Ceiling
- 18.0
- Big game (15+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 5):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brenton StrangeTE, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Dallas GoedertTE, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.1 | 7.9 |
| Rank this week | TE16 | TE12 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.6 | 11.3 |
| Last season per game | 7.9 | 10.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 25% |
| Trade value | — | 10 |