Chase BrownorJa'Marr Chase?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores Ja'Marr Chase in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ja'Marr Chase comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Chase Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Chase Brown projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Chase Brown has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (18% more than average to RBs); Ja'Marr Chase faces the Miami Dolphins (14% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Chase Brown wins 56%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 13.1
- Ceiling
- 26.2
- Big game (20+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 14.6 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 17.9 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 11.2 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | WR7 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 12.4 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 15.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 20% |
| Trade value | 33 | 57 |