Amon-Ra St. BrownorDerrick Henry?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Lean Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown outscores Derrick Henry in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Derrick Henry comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Amon-Ra St. Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (7% more than average to WRs); Derrick Henry faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Amon-Ra St. Brown wins 58%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry is the pick at 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.2
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 31.2
- Big game (20+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 14.9
- Ceiling
- 29.9
- Big game (20+):
- 31%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR, DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.3 | 16.8 |
| PPR projection | 21.0 | 17.4 |
| Standard projection | 13.5 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | WR3 | RB5 |
| Matchup | at ARI | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.9 | 21.8 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 16.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 96% | 62% |
| Trade value | 63 | 69 |