Chase BrownorJames Cook?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores James Cook in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: James Cook comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Chase Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. James Cook projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Chase Brown has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (18% more than average to RBs); James Cook faces the Los Angeles Rams (17% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chase Brown wins 57%; in Standard leagues, James Cook is the pick at 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 24.8
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | James CookRB, BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 14.9 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 15.7 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 14.1 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | RB7 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 15.9 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 59% |
| Trade value | 33 | 57 |