Chase BrownorQuinshon Judkins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores Quinshon Judkins in 57% of simulations.
Quinshon Judkins still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Chase Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chase Brown projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Quinshon Judkins has the better matchup against the New York Jets (32% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Miami Dolphins (18% more than average to RBs). Chase Brown still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 11.3
- Ceiling
- 22.6
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 14.4 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 11.2 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | RB12 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 11.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 66% |
| Trade value | 33 | 16 |