Chase BrownorRJ Harvey?
Week 7 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores RJ Harvey in 57% of simulations.
RJ Harvey still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Chase Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chase Brown projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. RJ Harvey has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (12% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Baltimore Ravens (4% fewer than average to RBs). Chase Brown still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.8
- Median
- 10.7
- Ceiling
- 19.9
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.9
- Ceiling
- 19.3
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | RJ HarveyRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.9 | 10.4 |
| PPR projection | 14.1 | 12.3 |
| Standard projection | 9.8 | 8.5 |
| Rank this week | RB13 | RB17 |
| Matchup | at BAL | at ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.6 | 8.4 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 10.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 60% | 40% |
| Trade value | 26 | 8 |