Chris OlaveorGeorge Kittle?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver or tight end.
Our call
Lean Chris Olave
Chris Olave outscores George Kittle in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: George Kittle comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Chris Olave, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Chris Olave projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. George Kittle has the better matchup against the Seattle Seahawks (2% fewer than average to TEs); Chris Olave faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to WRs). Chris Olave still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 23.1
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (15+):
- 35%
- Dud (under 5):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris OlaveWR, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.7 | 13.2 |
| PPR projection | 17.0 | 15.6 |
| Standard projection | 10.5 | 10.9 |
| Rank this week | WR11 | TE2 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.1 | 14.1 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 12.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 91% |
| Trade value | 54 | 42 |