Chris OlaveorMichael Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Chris Olave
Chris Olave outscores Michael Wilson in 56% of simulations.
Michael Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Chris Olave is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Olave projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (24% more than average to WRs); Chris Olave faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to WRs). Chris Olave still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 23.1
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 10.9
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris OlaveWR, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.7 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.0 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 10.5 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | WR11 | WR12 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.1 | 11.1 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 94% |
| Trade value | 54 | 20 |