Christian McCaffreyorJaxon Smith-Njigba?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Start Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey outscores Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 57% of simulations.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Christian McCaffrey has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (17% more than average to RBs); Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Las Vegas Raiders (9% more than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Christian McCaffrey wins 62%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.9
- Median
- 21.3
- Ceiling
- 34.3
- Big game (20+):
- 56%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
- Floor
- 9.6
- Median
- 19.1
- Ceiling
- 32.1
- Big game (20+):
- 45%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 22.2 | 20.2 |
| PPR projection | 25.0 | 24.1 |
| Standard projection | 19.4 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | RB1 | WR1 |
| Matchup | at DAL | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.6 | 21.8 |
| Last season per game | 21.5 | 17.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 76% |
| Trade value | 100 | 84 |