Christian McCaffreyorJaxon Smith-Njigba?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Christian McCaffrey in 56% of simulations.
Christian McCaffrey still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs), Christian McCaffrey faces the Denver Broncos (6% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 30.3
- Big game (20+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
- Floor
- 10.8
- Median
- 20.3
- Ceiling
- 33.0
- Big game (20+):
- 51%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.3 | 21.3 |
| PPR projection | 21.9 | 25.0 |
| Standard projection | 16.7 | 17.6 |
| Rank this week | RB4 | WR1 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.2 | 30.2 |
| Last season per game | 21.5 | 17.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 83% | 87% |
| Trade value | 77 | 97 |