James CookorJaxon Smith-Njigba?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores James Cook in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: James Cook comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. James Cook has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (5% more than average to RBs); Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Denver Broncos (19% fewer than average to WRs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Jaxon Smith-Njigba wins 57%; in Standard leagues, James Cook is the pick at 56%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.4
- Median
- 16.2
- Ceiling
- 29.6
- Big game (20+):
- 34%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
- Floor
- 8.5
- Median
- 17.1
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (20+):
- 36%
- Dud (under 6):
- 4%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | James CookRB, BUF, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.9 | 18.2 |
| PPR projection | 18.7 | 21.3 |
| Standard projection | 17.0 | 15.0 |
| Rank this week | RB5 | WR2 |
| Matchup | at LV | at DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.2 | 24.2 |
| Last season per game | 16.8 | 17.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 62% | 84% |
| Trade value | 56 | 81 |