Courtland SuttonorMike Evans?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Mike Evans
Mike Evans outscores Courtland Sutton in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Courtland Sutton comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Mike Evans, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Mike Evans projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Courtland Sutton has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to WRs); Mike Evans faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs). Mike Evans still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 38%
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Courtland SuttonWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| PPR projection | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Rank this week | WR35 | WR32 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.1 | 10.6 |
| Last season per game | 10.7 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 87% | 33% |
| Trade value | — | 2 |