David MontgomeryorEmmett Johnson?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start David Montgomery
David Montgomery outscores Emmett Johnson in 55% of simulations.
Emmett Johnson still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so David Montgomery is the better bet, not a sure thing. David Montgomery projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Emmett Johnson has the better matchup against the New York Jets (17% more than average to RBs); David Montgomery faces the Los Angeles Chargers (3% fewer than average to RBs). David Montgomery still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.3
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 18.1
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Emmett JohnsonRB, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.9 | 8.3 |
| PPR projection | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Rank this week | RB31 | RB34 |
| Matchup | at LAC | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.4 | 6.3 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 14% | 19% |
| Trade value | — | — |