David MontgomeryorRico Dowdle?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean David Montgomery
David Montgomery outscores Rico Dowdle in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Rico Dowdle comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean David Montgomery, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Rico Dowdle projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: David Montgomery faces the Tennessee Titans (1% fewer than average to RBs), Rico Dowdle faces the Indianapolis Colts (2% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.5
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| PPR projection | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 8.4 |
| Rank this week | RB25 | RB24 |
| Matchup | at TEN | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 26% |
| Trade value | — | — |