Derrick HenryorJaxon Smith-Njigba?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Derrick Henry in 59% of simulations.
Derrick Henry still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 2.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Derrick Henry has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs); Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Jaxon Smith-Njigba wins 66%; in Standard leagues, Jaxon Smith-Njigba wins 50%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.1
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 33.4
- Big game (20+):
- 38%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
- Floor
- 10.8
- Median
- 20.3
- Ceiling
- 33.0
- Big game (20+):
- 51%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.8 | 21.3 |
| PPR projection | 19.3 | 25.0 |
| Standard projection | 18.2 | 17.6 |
| Rank this week | RB4 | WR1 |
| Matchup | vs TEN | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 24.1 | 30.2 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 17.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 67% | 87% |
| Trade value | 67 | 96 |