Derrick HenryorJonah Coleman?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Jonah Coleman in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jonah Coleman comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Derrick Henry, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Derrick Henry projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Jonah Coleman has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (20% more than average to RBs); Derrick Henry faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (24% fewer than average to RBs). Derrick Henry still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 23.1
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 10.5
- Ceiling
- 23.4
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Jonah ColemanRB, DEN, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 12.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.2 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 12.2 | 10.8 |
| Rank this week | RB14 | RB18 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | at CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 9.9 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 45% | 66% |
| Trade value | 36 | 8 |