Bucky IrvingorDerrick Henry?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving outscores Derrick Henry in 57% of simulations.
Derrick Henry still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Bucky Irving is the better bet, not a sure thing. Bucky Irving projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Bucky Irving has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (9% fewer than average to RBs); Derrick Henry faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (23% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 24.3
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 23.0
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bucky IrvingRB, TB, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.1 | 12.7 |
| PPR projection | 15.1 | 13.2 |
| Standard projection | 13.0 | 12.2 |
| Rank this week | RB10 | RB13 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.2 | 16.3 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 16.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 50% | 45% |
| Trade value | 36 | 36 |