Bucky IrvingorKyren Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams outscores Bucky Irving in 59% of simulations.
Bucky Irving still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Kyren Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyren Williams projects 2.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bucky Irving has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (12% more than average to RBs); Kyren Williams faces the Philadelphia Eagles (average to RBs). Kyren Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Kyren Williams wins 66%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 7.5
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 23.1
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Bucky IrvingRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 15.0 |
| PPR projection | 14.5 | 16.4 |
| Standard projection | 10.9 | 13.7 |
| Rank this week | RB13 | RB9 |
| Matchup | vs GB | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.5 | 15.8 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 71% |
| Trade value | 17 | 40 |