DeVonta SmithorJalen Coker?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith outscores Jalen Coker in 55% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Jalen Coker comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean DeVonta Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DeVonta Smith projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jalen Coker has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (20% more than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Los Angeles Rams (2% more than average to WRs). DeVonta Smith still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

DeVonta Smith
Floor
3.4
Median
9.8
Ceiling
22.1
Big game (20+):
14%
Dud (under 6):
27%
Jalen Coker
Floor
2.4
Median
8.5
Ceiling
21.1
Big game (20+):
12%
Dud (under 6):
34%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJalen CokerWR, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection11.310.8
PPR projection14.113.1
Standard projection8.68.4
Rank this weekWR16WR18
Matchupvs LARvs DET
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game13.014.4
Last season per game9.66.7
Snap share, last game100%36%
Trade value165