DJ MooreorJosh Downs?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Josh Downs

Josh Downs outscores DJ Moore in 55% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: DJ Moore comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Josh Downs projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); DJ Moore faces the New England Patriots (3% fewer than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

DJ Moore
Floor
1.8
Median
6.9
Ceiling
17.8
Big game (20+):
7%
Dud (under 6):
44%
Josh Downs
Floor
3.3
Median
8.0
Ceiling
15.2
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
32%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDJ MooreWR, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJosh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection8.68.8
PPR projection10.311.2
Standard projection7.06.5
Rank this weekWR32WR29
Matchupvs NEat WAS
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game9.48.5
Last season per game8.76.8
Snap share, last game64%68%
Trade value1—