George KittleorJacory Croskey-Merritt?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end or running back.
Our call
Start George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Jacory Croskey-Merritt in 72% of simulations.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt still comes out ahead in the other 28%, so George Kittle is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Kittle projects 5.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: George Kittle faces the Denver Broncos (3% more than average to TEs), Jacory Croskey-Merritt faces the Indianapolis Colts (3% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, George Kittle wins 66%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 25.3
- Big game (15+):
- 35%
- Dud (under 5):
- 14%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 16.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 7.8 |
| PPR projection | 15.8 | 8.1 |
| Standard projection | 10.9 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | TE2 | RB30 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.8 | 7.4 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 8.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 57% |
| Trade value | 29 | — |