James CookorZay Flowers?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.

Our call

Lean James Cook

James Cook outscores Zay Flowers in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean James Cook, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. James Cook projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (12% more than average to WRs); James Cook faces the New England Patriots (13% fewer than average to RBs). James Cook still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Zay Flowers is the pick at 54%; in Standard leagues, James Cook wins 60%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

James Cook
Floor
6.1
Median
13.8
Ceiling
25.8
Big game (20+):
24%
Dud (under 6):
9%
Zay Flowers
Floor
5.6
Median
13.6
Ceiling
26.9
Big game (20+):
25%
Dud (under 6):
12%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJames CookRB, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETZay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection15.415.1
PPR projection16.217.8
Standard projection14.712.4
Rank this weekRB8WR7
Matchupvs NEvs TEN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game16.118.2
Last season per game16.811.8
Snap share, last game67%33%
Trade value5035