Javonte WilliamsorTreVeyon Henderson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams outscores TreVeyon Henderson in 61% of simulations.
TreVeyon Henderson still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Javonte Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Javonte Williams projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. TreVeyon Henderson has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (17% more than average to RBs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 21.6
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 9.0
- Ceiling
- 22.3
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | TreVeyon HendersonRB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.8 | 11.3 |
| PPR projection | 13.9 | 12.2 |
| Standard projection | 11.7 | 10.4 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | RB16 |
| Matchup | at HOU | at BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.2 | 8.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.1 | 11.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 37% |
| Trade value | 37 | 8 |