Jaylen WaddleorJustin Jefferson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson outscores Jaylen Waddle in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jaylen Waddle comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Justin Jefferson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justin Jefferson projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jaylen Waddle has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to WRs); Justin Jefferson faces the Miami Dolphins (9% fewer than average to WRs). Justin Jefferson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 17.2
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 29%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| PPR projection | 11.1 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 7.3 | 7.7 |
| Rank this week | WR26 | WR22 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.0 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | 10.1 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 73% | 12% |
| Trade value | 3 | 11 |