Jaylen WarrenorSam LaPorta?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or tight end.
Our call
Lean Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren outscores Sam LaPorta in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Sam LaPorta comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Jaylen Warren, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jaylen Warren projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Sam LaPorta has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (34% more than average to TEs); Jaylen Warren faces the Indianapolis Colts (2% fewer than average to RBs). Jaylen Warren still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Sam LaPorta is the pick at 51%; in Standard leagues, Jaylen Warren wins 62%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 11.6
- Ceiling
- 20.3
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 12%
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 10.7
- Ceiling
- 22.1
- Big game (15+):
- 28%
- Dud (under 5):
- 14%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam LaPortaTE, DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.5 | 12.3 |
| PPR projection | 13.9 | 15.1 |
| Standard projection | 11.1 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | TE4 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.4 | 11.4 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 9.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 97% | 79% |
| Trade value | 24 | 22 |