Chase BrownorJeremiyah Love?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Jeremiyah Love
Jeremiyah Love outscores Chase Brown in 58% of simulations.
Chase Brown still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Jeremiyah Love is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jeremiyah Love projects 2.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jeremiyah Love has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (20% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 19.4
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 12.5
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 14%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jeremiyah LoveRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.6 | 14.1 |
| PPR projection | 13.3 | 16.0 |
| Standard projection | 10.0 | 12.2 |
| Rank this week | RB15 | RB11 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 12.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 70% | 64% |
| Trade value | 28 | 26 |