Josh DownsorLuther Burden III?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Luther Burden III
Luther Burden III outscores Josh Downs in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Josh Downs comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Luther Burden III, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Luther Burden III projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Luther Burden III faces the Green Bay Packers (1% more than average to WRs), Josh Downs faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (6% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 6.5
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 16.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.2 | 8.2 |
| PPR projection | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 6.3 |
| Rank this week | WR44 | WR34 |
| Matchup | at PIT | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 9.3 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 7.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 56% |
| Trade value | — | — |