A.J. BrownorDeMario Douglas?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown outscores DeMario Douglas in 57% of simulations.
DeMario Douglas still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so A.J. Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. A.J. Brown projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: A.J. Brown faces the Detroit Lions (14% more than average to WRs), DeMario Douglas faces the Detroit Lions (14% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 8.9
- Ceiling
- 20.3
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 7.3
- Ceiling
- 19.2
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | DeMario DouglasWR, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.3 | 9.1 |
| PPR projection | 12.7 | 10.8 |
| Standard projection | 7.9 | 7.5 |
| Rank this week | WR26 | WR30 |
| Matchup | at DET | at DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | 9.0 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 5.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 68% |
| Trade value | 3 | — |