Justin HerbertorTanner McKee?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores Tanner McKee in 96% of simulations.
Tanner McKee comes out ahead in the other 4%. Justin Herbert projects 9.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Tanner McKee has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (6% fewer than average to QBs); Justin Herbert faces the Kansas City Chiefs (14% fewer than average to QBs). Justin Herbert still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 12.3
- Ceiling
- 20.3
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 48%
- Floor
- 0.6
- Median
- 2.6
- Ceiling
- 7.0
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- 98%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET | Tanner McKeeQB, PHI, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.0 | 3.3 |
| PPR projection | 13.0 | 3.3 |
| Standard projection | 13.0 | 3.3 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB22 |
| Matchup | at KC | vs CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | — |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 3.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |