Keenan AllenorMike Evans?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Mike Evans
Mike Evans outscores Keenan Allen in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keenan Allen comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Mike Evans, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Keenan Allen projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Keenan Allen has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6% more than average to WRs); Mike Evans faces the Seattle Seahawks (22% fewer than average to WRs). Mike Evans still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 16.1
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 41%
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 13.8
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| PPR projection | 10.9 | 9.9 |
| Standard projection | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | WR31 | WR34 |
| Matchup | at PIT | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.5 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 8.4 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 73% | 59% |
| Trade value | — | 6 |