Kenny GainwellorRico Dowdle?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle outscores Kenny Gainwell in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kenny Gainwell comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Rico Dowdle, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Rico Dowdle projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Kenny Gainwell has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (11% more than average to RBs); Rico Dowdle faces the Indianapolis Colts (2% fewer than average to RBs). Rico Dowdle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 17.9
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.5
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kenny GainwellRB, TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.7 | 9.5 |
| PPR projection | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| Standard projection | 6.9 | 8.4 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB24 |
| Matchup | at DAL | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 10.9 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 43% | 26% |
| Trade value | — | — |