Kyle PittsorTyler Higbee?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Tyler Higbee
Tyler Higbee outscores Kyle Pitts in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyle Pitts comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Tyler Higbee, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kyle Pitts projects 0.6 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Kyle Pitts has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (7% more than average to TEs); Tyler Higbee faces the Philadelphia Eagles (45% fewer than average to TEs). Tyler Higbee still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 14.9
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 49%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Kyle PittsTE, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Tyler HigbeeTE, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| PPR projection | 8.8 | 7.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Rank this week | TE15 | TE18 |
| Matchup | at NO | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 1.0 | 8.2 |
| Last season per game | 9.8 | 5.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 59% | 71% |
| Trade value | — | — |