Kyler MurrayorSam Darnold?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray outscores Sam Darnold in 60% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Kyler Murray is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyler Murray projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Kyler Murray has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to QBs); Sam Darnold faces the Los Angeles Chargers (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
- Floor
- 6.4
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.8 | 14.5 |
| PPR projection | 15.8 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 15.8 | 14.5 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB22 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.0 | 14.1 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |