Patrick MahomesorSam Darnold?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Sam Darnold in 56% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Sam Darnold has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (13% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Denver Broncos (11% fewer than average to QBs). Patrick Mahomes still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.4
- Median
- 15.1
- Ceiling
- 25.1
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 6.4
- Median
- 13.6
- Ceiling
- 25.3
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 40%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.0 | 15.0 |
| PPR projection | 16.0 | 15.0 |
| Standard projection | 16.0 | 15.0 |
| Rank this week | QB13 | QB15 |
| Matchup | at DEN | vs CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.7 | 12.5 |
| Last season per game | 20.4 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |