Kyren WilliamsorZay Flowers?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams outscores Zay Flowers in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Kyren Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kyren Williams projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (12% more than average to WRs); Kyren Williams faces the Philadelphia Eagles (average to RBs). Kyren Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Kyren Williams wins 59%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Kyren Williams
Floor
7.7
Median
14.1
Ceiling
23.3
Big game (20+):
20%
Dud (under 6):
4%
Zay Flowers
Floor
5.6
Median
13.6
Ceiling
26.9
Big game (20+):
25%
Dud (under 6):
12%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatKyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETZay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection15.215.1
PPR projection16.617.8
Standard projection13.712.4
Rank this weekRB9WR7
Matchupat PHIvs TEN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game15.818.2
Last season per game14.411.8
Snap share, last game71%33%
Trade value4035