Kyren WilliamsorZay Flowers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams outscores Zay Flowers in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Kyren Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kyren Williams projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (12% more than average to WRs); Kyren Williams faces the Philadelphia Eagles (average to RBs). Kyren Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Kyren Williams wins 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.7
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 23.3
- Big game (20+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 6):
- 4%
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 13.6
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (20+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 6):
- 12%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.2 | 15.1 |
| PPR projection | 16.6 | 17.8 |
| Standard projection | 13.7 | 12.4 |
| Rank this week | RB9 | WR7 |
| Matchup | at PHI | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.8 | 18.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.4 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 71% | 33% |
| Trade value | 40 | 35 |