Luther Burden IIIorMichael Wilson?
Week 7 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson outscores Luther Burden III in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Michael Wilson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Michael Wilson projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. Luther Burden III has the better matchup against the New England Patriots (3% fewer than average to WRs); Michael Wilson faces the Denver Broncos (14% fewer than average to WRs). Michael Wilson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 41%
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 41%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.6 | 8.8 |
| PPR projection | 10.7 | 11.1 |
| Standard projection | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | WR34 | WR31 |
| Matchup | vs NE | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| Last season per game | 7.0 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 39% | 92% |
| Trade value | — | 4 |