Jaylen WaddleorLuther Burden III?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle outscores Luther Burden III in 56% of simulations.
Luther Burden III still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jaylen Waddle is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaylen Waddle projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Jaylen Waddle faces the Los Angeles Chargers (6% fewer than average to WRs), Luther Burden III faces the Green Bay Packers (1% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 17.5
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 16.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.4 | 8.2 |
| PPR projection | 11.4 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 7.5 | 6.3 |
| Rank this week | WR26 | WR34 |
| Matchup | at LAC | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| Last season per game | 10.1 | 7.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 56% |
| Trade value | 6 | — |