Aaron RodgersorLamar Jackson?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson outscores Aaron Rodgers in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Aaron Rodgers comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Lamar Jackson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Lamar Jackson projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Aaron Rodgers has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5% more than average to QBs); Lamar Jackson faces the Cleveland Browns (12% fewer than average to QBs). Lamar Jackson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.2
- Median
- 15.5
- Ceiling
- 25.9
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 29%
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 26.1
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Lamar JacksonQB, BAL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.5 | 16.6 |
| PPR projection | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| Standard projection | 16.5 | 16.6 |
| Rank this week | QB14 | QB13 |
| Matchup | at TB | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.6 | 19.8 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 16.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 97% | 52% |
| Trade value | — | 4 |