Ashton JeantyorMalik Nabers?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Malik Nabers in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Malik Nabers comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Malik Nabers projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Malik Nabers has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (17% more than average to WRs); Ashton Jeanty faces the New England Patriots (13% fewer than average to RBs). Ashton Jeanty still wins more often despite that. Ashton Jeanty is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 10.5
- Ceiling
- 23.4
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.6 | 12.1 |
| PPR projection | 13.2 | 14.6 |
| Standard projection | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | RB13 | WR12 |
| Matchup | at NE | at WAS |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.1 | 8.9 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 67% | 76% |
| Trade value | 34 | 16 |