Chase BrownorSaquon Barkley?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores Saquon Barkley in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Saquon Barkley comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Chase Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Chase Brown projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Chase Brown faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (20% fewer than average to RBs), Saquon Barkley faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chase Brown wins 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 19.4
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 19.0
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| PPR projection | 13.3 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| Rank this week | RB17 | RB19 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 70% | 72% |
| Trade value | 27 | 18 |