Ashton JeantyorNico Collins?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Ashton Jeanty in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ashton Jeanty comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Nico Collins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 14.7 half-PPR points in Week 6. Ashton Jeanty has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (18% more than average to RBs); Nico Collins faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% more than average to WRs). Nico Collins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.8
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 27.6
- Big game (20+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 6):
- 15%
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 25.2
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| PPR projection | 16.8 | 17.4 |
| Standard projection | 12.6 | 12.0 |
| Rank this week | RB9 | WR7 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.7 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 53% | 71% |
| Trade value | 29 | 39 |