Aaron JonesorAshton Jeanty?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Aaron Jones in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Aaron Jones comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (21% more than average to RBs); Ashton Jeanty faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs). Ashton Jeanty still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.9
- Median
- 10.1
- Ceiling
- 17.5
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
- Floor
- 4.1
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 24.1
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.7 | 12.7 |
| PPR projection | 11.9 | 14.4 |
| Standard projection | 9.5 | 11.1 |
| Rank this week | RB18 | RB14 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | 16.3 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 12.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 84% |
| Trade value | 2 | 32 |