Audric EstiméorChase Brown?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores Audric Estimé in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Audric Estimé comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Chase Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Chase Brown projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Audric Estimé has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (19% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (13% fewer than average to RBs). Chase Brown still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chase Brown wins 60%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 9.1
- Ceiling
- 18.8
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 18.0
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Audric EstiméRB, NO, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| PPR projection | 11.3 | 12.9 |
| Standard projection | 9.2 | 8.7 |
| Rank this week | RB20 | RB16 |
| Matchup | vs CAR | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 8.4 | 14.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 47% | 63% |
| Trade value | — | 19 |