Braelon AllenorTy Johnson?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Braelon Allen
Braelon Allen outscores Ty Johnson in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ty Johnson comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Braelon Allen, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Braelon Allen projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Ty Johnson has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (5% more than average to RBs); Braelon Allen faces the New England Patriots (11% fewer than average to RBs). Braelon Allen still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 11.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 60%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 4.5
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 64%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Braelon AllenRB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ty JohnsonRB, BUF, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| PPR projection | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.5 | 4.7 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB40 |
| Matchup | at NE | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.2 | 6.1 |
| Last season per game | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 22% |
| Trade value | — | — |