Brian Thomas Jr.orTory Horton?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. outscores Tory Horton in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tory Horton comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Brian Thomas Jr., and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tory Horton projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Brian Thomas Jr. faces the Philadelphia Eagles (5% fewer than average to WRs), Tory Horton faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Brian Thomas Jr. wins 56%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 11.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 51%
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 14.7
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Tory HortonWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| PPR projection | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| Standard projection | 5.3 | 6.2 |
| Rank this week | WR47 | WR44 |
| Matchup | vs PHI | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.3 | 6.7 |
| Last season per game | 8.2 | 7.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 62% | 17% |
| Trade value | — | — |